Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe895…cf9f politics 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 329d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%19W / 38L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1
politics 18% +$1
other 17% $0
economics 8% $0
finance 7% −$1
sports 7% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.7%
all 57 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

329d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses19 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage329d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $107 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $36 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $57 $0 -1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Aug 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 20 $4 $0 +6%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 395–409 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $6 $0 +3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Aug 10 $11 $0 +3%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 25 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $22 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $39 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $39 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $40 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $40 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $36 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $36 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $26 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $36 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $36 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records