Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:04:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E8 0xe897…0b3b sports 370 markets active 1h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$369 (+2%) realized +$384 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate66%242W / 125L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days+$70
14 days+$45
30 days−$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$113
other 14% +$75
crypto 0% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -3.4% -12.6% 64% 64% -7.1%
≤30d 172 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 60% -12.9%
≤90d 325 -1.1% -10.5% 66% 64% -7.6%
all 367 -0.5% -10.0% 66% 63% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 63% -8.2%
10% -18.6% 55% -17.0%
15% -26.4% 38% -25.0%
20% -33.6% 25% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$41 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$384
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses242 / 125
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions3
Markets (closed)367 / 370
History coverage285d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ 52¢ $27 $20 −$7 (-26%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 60¢ 34¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $40 +$12 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $40 +$12 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $50 +$11 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$19 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$52 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 +$6 +21%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $30 +$14 +46%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson Jun 20 $30 +$9 +30%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $67 −$44 -66%
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi Jun 20 $20 +$13 +62%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $40 +$14 +35%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$7 +24%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $20 +$12 +59%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $24 −$4 -18%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $36 +$8 +23%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $9 −$9 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $30 −$22 -72%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$17 +34%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. A Jun 20 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 +$35 +50%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 +$21 +42%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ilay Yoruk Jun 19 $39 +$18 +46%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
ITF Haskovo: Gina Feistel vs Martha Matoula Jun 19 $30 +$11 +36%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $18 −$18 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $60 +$28 +46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $70 −$69 -99%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $20 −$10 -47%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $100 +$40 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $55 +$16 +29%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$9 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$16 +105%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$14 +70%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -80%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$96 -95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $6 +$3 +42%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $40 +$7 +18%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $90 +$29 +32%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $40 +$18 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $53 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $27 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $25 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 100¢ $53 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 76¢ $40 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw SELL Murtazali Magomedov 100¢ $62 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $40 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 81¢ $50 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 83¢ $20 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $37 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $30 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray SELL Matteo Arnaldi 100¢ $44 13h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson SELL Murphy Cassone 100¢ $39 14h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 68¢ $30 14h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 22¢ $23 15h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson BUY Murphy Cassone 76¢ $30 15h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 61¢ $30 16h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 64¢ $36 20h
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi SELL Ayumi Miyamoto 100¢ $33 20h
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi BUY Ayumi Miyamoto 61¢ $20 21h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $30 21h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 100¢ $54 21h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 21h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 81¢ $20 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.53 · official $132.80 · 682 history records