Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe89b…3262 sports 79 markets active 1d ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+20%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%44W / 30L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$16
14 days+$9
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$13
other 41% +$33
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -2.7% -11.9% 60% 60% +10.9%
≤30d 64 +2.0% -7.7% 61% 61% +1.9%
≤90d 71 +1.1% -8.6% 59% 59% +8.5%
all 74 +2.8% -7.0% 59% 59% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 59% +8.9%
10% -15.9% 59% -1.5%
15% -24.0% 55% -11.0%
20% -31.5% 43% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses44 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 79
History coverage119d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 +$4 +79%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $8 +$5 +61%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $2 +$1 +59%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +145%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +121%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 +$1 +39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 $0 -32%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +118%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 +$2 +66%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $4 +$3 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $2 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3 +$3 +132%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $2 +$1 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $12 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND W BUY 36¢ $1 38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 21¢ $1 38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 15¢ $1 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 38h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $8 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 40¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 14¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $5 3d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $3 4d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 49¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $5 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 149 history records