Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe89b…42b9 world 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$3
other 15% $0
politics 10% $0
sports 7% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 14 -1.5% -10.9% 29% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 14 -1.5% -10.9% 29% 0% -10.3%
all 33 +0.1% -9.4% 42% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -10.0%
10% -18.1% 3% -18.6%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage459d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 -8%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $2 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $47 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $35 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $62 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $30 −$2 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 22 $2 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 21 $1 $0 +22%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 9? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 06 $3 $0 -6%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 May 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 28 $14 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 9m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 10m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $17 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $16 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $10 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $23 28h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 16d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $16 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $17 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $34 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $33 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $35 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $26 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $9 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $12 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $23 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records