Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E8 0xe89c…9c72 sports 121 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,412 (+13%) realized +$3,414 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%75W / 43L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$268est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,013now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,293
7 days+$3,768
14 days+$3,253
30 days+$3,253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$2,118
other 7% +$1,133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +14.0% +3.1% 64% 57% +6.1%
≤30d 118 +13.3% +2.5% 64% 57% +2.1%
≤90d 118 +13.3% +2.5% 64% 57% +2.1%
all 118 +13.3% +2.5% 64% 57% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.5% 57% +2.1%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 47% -7.7%
15% -16.2% 38% -16.6%
20% -24.4% 30% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$128 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,013
Realized+$3,414
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses75 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$268
Open positions3
Markets (closed)118 / 121
History coverage8d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 66¢ 100¢ $330 $500 +$170 (+51%)
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Benjamin Bonzi 95¢ 86¢ $490 $448 −$42 (-9%)
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 36¢ 100¢ $23 $64 +$41 (+178%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $318 +$187 +59%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 17 $4 +$1 +34%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $986 +$18 +2%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $14 +$3 +25%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $1,174 +$995 +85%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $2 +$4 +216%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $155 +$58 +37%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $725 +$247 +34%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 +$11 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $405 +$641 +158%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 +$11 +60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 +$2 +6%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 +$15 +140%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $766 −$226 -30%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 +$21 +365%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$14 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $584 +$245 +42%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $44 +$66 +152%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $187 +$14 +7%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $2 +$3 +158%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $608 −$393 -65%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $328 +$220 +67%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $153 +$301 +197%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $133 +$21 +16%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $12 −$2 -17%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $188 −$184 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $359 +$172 +48%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $249 −$245 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $333 +$167 +50%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $430 +$83 +19%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $2 +$3 +158%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $7 +$5 +62%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $1,250 +$260 +21%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $368 +$139 +38%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $427 +$73 +17%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $903 +$97 +11%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $118 −$117 -98%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $55 −$53 -98%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $457 +$543 +119%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $67 +$38 +57%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $7 +$2 +34%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $4 +$3 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 95¢ $491 4m
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 36¢ $24 1h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 41¢ $209 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Sebastian Ofner 74¢ $4 1h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 35¢ $2 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 98¢ $490 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 97¢ $490 1h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 71¢ $107 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 34¢ $2 2h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 62¢ $3 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 79¢ $14 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 53¢ $3 3h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $294 3h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $294 3h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $289 3h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 31¢ $2 3h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 88¢ $5 3h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 58¢ $294 3h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 94¢ $17 4h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 54¢ $32 5h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 28¢ $5 5h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 74¢ $101 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $545 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $167 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $11 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $18 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 38¢ $405 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,013.15 · official $890.42 · 261 history records