Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E8 0xe89c…fc17 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$98 (-15%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$121
14 days+$117
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$108
other 9% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +14.4% +3.5% 38% 25% +14.7%
≤30d 13 +36.1% +23.1% 38% 31% +12.0%
≤90d 14 +26.4% +14.3% 36% 29% -1.8%
all 14 +26.4% +14.3% 36% 29% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 29% -1.8%
10% +3.4% 29% -11.2%
15% -6.6% 29% -19.7%
20% -15.7% 29% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$20 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage35d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $145 +$152 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $9 −$3 -39%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $172 +$13 +8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $111 +$35 +31%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $25 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $14 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$10 +197%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 −$23 -76%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 −$1 -15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$19 +403%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $70 −$69 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $296 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $145 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 11¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 17¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 56¢ $145 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $158 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 41¢ $41 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 14¢ $14 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 13¢ $14 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 48¢ $146 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 32¢ $96 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 32¢ $1 25h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $61 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 64¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 19¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 19¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 19¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 33¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 33¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 33¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 42¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 28¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 49¢ $14 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 47¢ $23 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports $1 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 15¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 26¢ $6 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 28¢ $7 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 28¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records