Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe89d…4128 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$1
other 12% $0
politics 5% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.7%
all 42 +0.2% -9.3% 36% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage449d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $15 +$1 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $33 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $55 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $23 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $37 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $104 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 24 $2 $0 +3%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 24 $8 $0 -1%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Electio Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25? Apr 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 21 $11 $0 -3%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 09 $11 −$1 -7%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 07 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $36 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $22 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $22 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $33 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $16 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $9 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $6 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $33 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $33 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $28 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $16 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $32 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records