Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8a0…3aea other 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$101 (-12%) realized −$91 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%20W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$20
14 days+$6
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$96
finance 35% −$49
tech 7% +$35
sports 4% −$14
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +25.0% +13.1% 45% 45% -16.5%
≤30d 47 +9.0% -1.4% 40% 40% -12.3%
≤90d 58 -3.0% -12.3% 34% 34% -18.5%
all 58 -3.0% -12.3% 34% 34% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 34% -18.5%
10% -20.7% 34% -26.3%
15% -28.3% 31% -33.4%
20% -35.4% 31% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage39d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Up 49¢ 57¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? Up 43¢ 6¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +73%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$7 -64%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $90 −$18 -20%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $46 −$11 -24%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$12 +91%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +70%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$1 -15%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $12 +$23 +197%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $49 −$27 -54%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$2 +28%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $16 −$14 -89%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$4 -31%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$13 +170%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -31%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $37 −$8 -23%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$8 +80%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$8 +135%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $23 +$37 +164%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $17 −$15 -92%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$2 +22%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $9 −$1 -14%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$5 +89%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2 +$3 +127%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $10 +$17 +162%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -59%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $36 +$19 +52%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 -29%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $6 +$9 +148%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $13 −$8 -63%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 29? May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $23 −$23 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $20 +$21 +104%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $3 +$8 +221%
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on May 26? May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $19 −$1 -5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $1 +$1 +117%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $5 −$3 -59%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $49 −$22 -44%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $2 −$1 -90%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $10 +$10 +93%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $10 −$9 -87%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15? May 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 15 $2 $0 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 14 $1 $0 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 39¢ $2 2m
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 44¢ $4 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 49¢ $0 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 49¢ $5 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 53¢ $8 4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 47¢ $9 8h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 49¢ $3 9h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 49¢ $4 9h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 49¢ $3 9h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 17¢ $4 19h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 44¢ $11 20h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 58¢ $6 23h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 55¢ $0 23h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 27¢ $1 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 35¢ $1 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 35¢ $0 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 35¢ $0 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 35¢ $0 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 35¢ $0 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 35¢ $0 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 35¢ $0 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 35¢ $0 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 35¢ $0 3d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 11¢ $1 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 35¢ $19 3d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 38¢ $2 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 47¢ $2 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 49¢ $25 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 48¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.37 · official $18.17 · 347 history records