Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8a1…1d37 weather 313 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,725 (+13%) realized +$2,468 · open +$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%119W / 181L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$173
7 days+$383
14 days+$417
30 days+$348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,615
sports 0% −$29
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% −$2
other 0% −$2
finance 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +8.1% -2.2% 61% 58% +13.3%
≤30d 50 -1.5% -10.9% 54% 52% +5.2%
≤90d 300 -3.8% -13.0% 40% 37% +10.6%
all 300 -3.8% -13.0% 40% 37% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 37% +10.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 28% +0.0%
15% -28.9% 22% -9.6%
20% -35.9% 18% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$39 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$2,468
Unrealized+$112
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses119 / 181
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)300 / 313
History coverage85d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? No 83¢ 81¢ $116 $113 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? No 82¢ 100¢ $82 $100 +$18 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? No 59¢ 98¢ $47 $78 +$31 (+65%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 55¢ $30 $54 +$24 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $19 $50 +$30 (+156%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $34 $44 +$10 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $28 $37 +$8 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 12¢ $0 $21 +$21 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $26 $10 −$16 (-62%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $2 −$6 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $70 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $75 +$25 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 +$70 +186%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $90 +$31 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $66 +$22 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $65 −$53 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $74 −$40 -54%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $253 +$108 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $18 −$10 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 +$51 +189%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $30 −$29 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $126 +$24 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $31 +$41 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $93 +$20 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $43 +$41 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 12 $128 +$27 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 +$36 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $85 −$22 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $43 +$55 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $43 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $58 +$29 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $110 +$40 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$4 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $33 −$21 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $31 +$17 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$14 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 −$22 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $29 −$21 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $28 −$18 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 1? Jun 01 $112 +$83 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $46 −$46 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $20 −$9 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $39 +$11 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 31? May 30 $18 −$18 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $62 −$61 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? May 28 $117 −$38 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 25? May 26 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 25? May 26 $51 +$41 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 25? May 26 $74 +$48 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $39 +$58 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? May 25 $73 −$71 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $53 −$11 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 25? May 25 $26 −$15 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 25? May 25 $57 +$27 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $32 −$31 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 1m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 76¢ $77 9m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $27 15m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 24m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 25m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 BUY Yes 77¢ $29 28m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $82 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $527.33 · official $533.01 · 2520 history records