Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8a6…644b world 158 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (198 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25,806 (+38%) realized +$43,226 · open −$17,420
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate70%52W / 22L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day198.2pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$62,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$1,046
other 23% −$409
politics 15% −$16,011
finance 7% −$467
sports 3% +$26
tech 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$14
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (198 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -5.0% -14.0% 68% 22% -5.9%
≤30d 74 +2.1% -7.6% 70% 24% -6.2%
≤90d 74 +2.1% -7.6% 70% 24% -6.2%
all 74 +2.1% -7.6% 70% 24% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover198.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 24% -6.2%
10% -16.4% 19% -15.2%
15% ← realistic here -24.5% 11% -23.4%
20% -31.9% 9% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$26 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.83 per $1 lost it wins $3.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$62,484
Realized+$43,226
Unrealized−$17,420
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses52 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions141
Markets (closed)74 / 158
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$429
Trades / day198.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 141 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $26,500 $42,586 +$16,086 (+61%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $26,500 $10,414 −$16,086 (-61%)
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 47¢ $2,414 $1,743 −$671 (-28%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? No 95¢ 100¢ $615 $650 +$35 (+6%)
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $515 $517 +$2 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 93¢ 100¢ $468 $500 +$32 (+7%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $497 $497 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $506 $492 −$14 (-3%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $368 $394 +$26 (+7%)
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record? Yes 46¢ 88¢ $192 $367 +$175 (+91%)
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 83¢ 96¢ $231 $267 +$36 (+15%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 85¢ $158 $190 +$32 (+20%)
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $160 $165 +$5 (+3%)
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $155 $164 +$9 (+6%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 52¢ $96 $143 +$47 (+49%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 72¢ 69¢ $144 $139 −$5 (-3%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $127 $131 +$4 (+3%)
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $118 $121 +$3 (+2%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $104 $109 +$6 (+6%)
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? No 73¢ 58¢ $131 $105 −$26 (-20%)
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $97 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $106 $91 −$15 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on July 31, 2026? Jun 26 $396 +$13 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 26 $255 −$105 -41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 26 $600 −$10 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +139%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 26 $13 +$6 +47%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December Jun 26 $24 +$7 +29%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 25 $748 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 25 $498 +$100 +20%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $28 +$6 +22%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 23? Jun 23 $85 +$5 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, Jun 23 $71 +$3 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $72 −$65 -90%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $6 −$3 -52%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $508 +$13 +3%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? Jun 22 $358 +$7 +2%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $124 −$24 -20%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $2,957 −$119 -4%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? Jun 22 $48 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 22 $299 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $2,786 +$47 +2%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $1,180 +$20 +2%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $1,763 +$36 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $352 +$16 +4%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $922 +$71 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $67 +$5 +8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $3,516 +$648 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $527 +$128 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $397 +$20 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $97 +$24 +24%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 20 $82 −$35 -42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $222 −$26 -12%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $1,756 +$139 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $39 +$1 +3%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $218 +$66 +30%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $961 −$25 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 18 $56 +$5 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $80 −$13 -16%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $146 +$4 +3%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $13 +$23 +182%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $228 +$3 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $245 +$17 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $15,394 +$364 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 17 $210 +$16 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1m
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1m
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 5m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 5m
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 65¢ $37 7m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 10m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $35 11m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $12 11m
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 14m
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 14m
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $25 14m
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 14m
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2 17m
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $17 20m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 21m
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $11 22m
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $8 22m
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $17 22m
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $17 22m
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $17 22m
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $12 23m
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $12 23m
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $98 25m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 27m
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 30m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 30m
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $332 33m
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 37m
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 37m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY No 81¢ $16 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62,484.07 · official $62,484.12 (match) · 3500 history records