Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe8a6…d2ab
sports · 29 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$21 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$31
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses20 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage5d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 4 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? No 86¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 86¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Knicks 86¢ 85¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 86¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? No 87¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 86¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Costa Rica? No 86¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Vitality 86¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Yes 86¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +16%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 1 Chile? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 39% −$10
weather 36% −$9
other 25% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 94¢ $8 51m
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 94¢ $2 54m
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) BUY Knicks 86¢ $10 54m
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $10 1h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 86¢ $10 19h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Qatar 86¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY No 86¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 86¢ $10 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 86¢ $10 27h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) SELL Hanwha Life Esports 94¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $10 38h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $10 38h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 86¢ $10 42h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 86¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $5 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? SELL No 95¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? SELL No 95¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $9 2d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Czechia 86¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 87¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Costa Rica? BUY No 86¢ $10 3d
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 97¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +76%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -8.3% -17.0% 80% 76% -17.8%
≤30d 25 -8.3% -17.0% 80% 76% -17.8%
≤90d 25 -8.3% -17.0% 80% 76% -17.8%
all 25 -8.3% -17.0% 80% 76% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 76% -17.8%
10% -25.0% 0% -25.7%
15% -32.2% 0% -32.9%
20% -38.9% 0% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.96 · official $30.06 (match) · 62 history records