Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E8 0xe8aa…e4d1 sports 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$149 (-4%) realized −$149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%51W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days−$104
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$136
other 19% +$146
world 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -2.7% -12.0% 43% 43% -11.9%
≤30d 110 +5.2% -4.8% 46% 46% -10.1%
≤90d 110 +5.2% -4.8% 46% 46% -10.1%
all 110 +5.2% -4.8% 46% 46% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 46% -10.1%
10% -14.0% 46% -18.7%
15% -22.3% 43% -26.6%
20% -29.9% 38% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$33 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses51 / 59
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage8d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $25 −$2 -8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $47 −$46 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 +$48 +97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $49 −$48 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $41 +$71 +175%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$49 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $36 −$36 -99%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $19 +$18 +91%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $29 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $61 +$25 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$74 +74%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 18 $100 +$45 +45%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$41 +42%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$14 +70%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 +$84 +83%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $28 +$27 +94%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $49 +$15 +31%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $149 +$125 +84%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $53 −$52 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $70 +$52 +75%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 +$34 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 +$60 +120%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$37 +73%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $38 −$37 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $48 −$48 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $87 −$86 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 +$29 +101%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$30 +60%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $64 −$63 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$18 +118%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$18 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) AND Will Germany BUY 17¢ $20 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (- BUY 3¢ $2 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $23 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $50 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 9h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 25¢ $50 9h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 55¢ $51 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $47 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 24¢ $50 11h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Haiti 36¢ $49 11h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $50 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 15h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $36 15h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $37 16h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $50 16h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 43¢ $51 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $19 17h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $29 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $41 32h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $36 34h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $61 38h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $100 40h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 68¢ $100 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $22.00 · 181 history records