Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:56:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8aa…7934 crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$580 (-28%) realized −$563 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$262
7 days−$262
14 days−$262
30 days−$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$526
other 20% −$279
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-46.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 16 -52.9% -57.4% 12% 12% -63.6%
all 28 -41.2% -46.8% 21% 21% -48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.8% 21% -48.7%
10% -51.9% 18% -53.6%
15% -56.5% 18% -58.1%
20% -60.8% 18% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$58 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized−$563
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage133d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 62¢ 62¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $62 −$61 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 22 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 22 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 22 $40 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 22 $40 −$18 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 22 $30 +$63 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 22 $40 +$76 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 22 $20 −$12 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 22 $20 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 20 $150 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 20 $100 +$114 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 20 $200 −$195 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 20 $100 −$93 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 20 $200 −$199 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 20 $100 +$198 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 20 $100 −$69 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 20 $110 −$98 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 4¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $50 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $40 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $40 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $22 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $40 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $30 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $8 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $20 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $40 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $30 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $20 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $30 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $12 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $20 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $200 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $7 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $100 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $100 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.10 · official $233.10 (match) · 57 history records