trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $8,691 | $8,686 | −$4 (-0%) |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May Meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Moderates be part of the next Government of Denmark? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 28? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22? | Yes | 96¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? | Jun 13 | $8,699 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 28? | May 27 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M | May 27 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont | May 27 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18? | May 27 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? | May 27 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co | May 27 | $4 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 19 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Apr 19 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Moderates be part of the next Government of Denmark? | Mar 25 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? | Mar 25 | $2 | $0 | +12% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Mar 25 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi | Feb 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? | Feb 22 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 22 | $4 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? | Feb 22 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game | Jan 16 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 8? | Dec 08 | $7,822 | +$32 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? | Dec 08 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 30? | Dec 08 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +2.4% | -7.4% | 86% | 14% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 92% | 17% | -9.5% |
| all | 20 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 90% | 10% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.8% | 10% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -20.3% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -28.0% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 0% | -33.2% |