Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:15:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E8 0xe8ad…cba4 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$281 (+43%) realized +$281 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate91%10W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$222
crypto 37% +$96
other 13% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +47.4% +33.3% 91% 73% +47.0%
≤30d 11 +47.4% +33.3% 91% 73% +47.0%
≤90d 11 +47.4% +33.3% 91% 73% +47.0%
all 11 +47.4% +33.3% 91% 73% +47.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.3% 73% +47.0%
10% ← realistic here +20.6% 73% +33.0%
15% +8.9% 73% +20.1%
20% -1.8% 64% +8.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$5 · ×7.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×78.44 per $1 lost it wins $78.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$281
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz SSG Landers 20¢ 24¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 12¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 25 $202 +$130 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$28 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $101 +$7 +6%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $101 +$87 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$14 +55%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $76 +$73 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz BUY SSG Landers 20¢ $20 15m
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins SELL Samsung Lions 98¢ $333 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY Samsung Lions 59¢ $202 3h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 21¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $107 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 7h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 53¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $40 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 100¢ $149 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $76 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.95 · official $40.45 · 23 history records