Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8ad…411a other 203 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$126 (-2%) realized −$77 · open −$49
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate46%83W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$683now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days+$276
14 days+$98
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$60
world 19% +$59
sports 16% −$176
politics 11% +$13
tech 7% −$152
weather 2% −$12
crypto 2% +$49
finance 2% +$6
economics 0% +$20
culture 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +36.6% +23.6% 56% 56% +6.4%
≤30d 35 +9.8% -0.7% 43% 43% -4.4%
≤90d 100 -3.8% -12.9% 42% 40% -12.2%
all 179 -6.0% -15.0% 46% 32% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 32% -10.5%
10% -23.1% 26% -19.0%
15% -30.5% 23% -26.9%
20% -37.3% 21% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$683
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses83 / 96
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions23
Markets (closed)179 / 203
History coverage143d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $180 $179 −$1 (-1%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $95 $79 −$16 (-17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $41 $55 +$15 (+36%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $37 $43 +$6 (+16%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $38 $42 +$3 (+8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $38 $32 −$7 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $34 $30 −$4 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+18%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $29 $22 −$6 (-22%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 42¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $18 +$2 (+16%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $24 $12 −$12 (-48%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $10 −$7 (-41%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $16 $8 −$8 (-47%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 71¢ 66¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $222 +$207 +93%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $39 +$61 +155%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $156 −$153 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $156 −$154 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $137 −$7 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $76 +$45 +60%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $431 +$226 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $18 +$12 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $117 +$70 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17 +$23 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$25 +73%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 15 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $77 +$72 +94%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $41 +$34 +84%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$54 +106%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $235 −$77 -33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$31 +158%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 14 $37 +$13 +35%
Will Trump say "Train" this week? May 11 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Trump say "Cocaine" this week? May 11 $38 +$12 +33%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? May 03 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Trump say "Uncle" this week? May 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Unai Emery be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 03 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 28 $238 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $41 +$24 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 24? Apr 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Sucker" or "Loser" this week? (April 19) Apr 23 $0 +$1 +223%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 23 $12 +$7 +57%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" this week? (April 19) Apr 23 $2 +$11 +456%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $26 +$44 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $154 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $29 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $156 19h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $156 19h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $155 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $130 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $137 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $16 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $20 26h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 26h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $19 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 52¢ $16 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $40 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 48¢ $39 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $39 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $117 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $117 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $18 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $281 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 14¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $76 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $12 4d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 48¢ $20 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $17 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $683.17 · official $682.38 (match) · 976 history records