Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:43:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E8 0xe8ad…a859 crypto 373 markets active 3d ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (192 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70,220 (-42%) realized −$70,220 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%236W / 424L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$449per market
Trades / day192.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44,125
7 days−$49,228
14 days−$56,295
30 days−$54,488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10,363
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (192 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 455 -31.5% -38.1% 23% 22% -45.7%
≤30d 660 -22.6% -30.0% 36% 33% -33.5%
≤90d 660 -22.6% -30.0% 36% 33% -33.5%
all 660 -22.6% -30.0% 36% 33% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover192.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.0% 33% -33.5%
10% ← realistic here -36.7% 27% -39.9%
15% -42.8% 17% -45.7%
20% -48.4% 12% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$228 vs −$256 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70,220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses236 / 424
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)660 / 373
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$449
Trades / day192.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 660 Trades
no open positions (363 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$11 -5680%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $228 −$228 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $150 −$181 -121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$67 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$25 -133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -2676%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $289 −$289 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $291 −$291 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $70 −$127 -181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $297 −$297 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $193 −$193 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $390 −$390 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $316 −$316 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $289 −$289 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $179 −$179 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $290 −$290 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $194 −$194 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$40 -75862%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $307 −$307 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $298 −$298 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$25 -57118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $291 −$291 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $264 −$264 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $318 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $665 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records