Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

E8 0xe8b1…f25d other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$9 (-4%) realized −$9 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$54per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-18.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-10.1%	-18.6%	50%	50%	-6.2%
≤30d	4	-10.1%	-18.6%	50%	50%	-6.2%
≤90d	4	-10.1%	-18.6%	50%	50%	-6.2%
all	4	-10.1%	-18.6%	50%	50%	-6.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.6%	50%	-6.2%
10%	-26.4%	50%	-15.2%
15%	-33.5%	25%	-23.3%
20%	-40.1%	0%	-30.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.25 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$9

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$54

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$75	−$7	-10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$55	+$18	+32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$25	−$25	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$60	+$23	+38%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	19¢	$68	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$75	9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$73	10h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	75¢	$55	10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$25	12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL	40¢	$83	15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	28¢	$60	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records