Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8b3…bf72 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$4 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$1
other 7% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 46% -13.5%
≤30d 26 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 46% -13.5%
≤90d 26 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 46% -13.5%
all 26 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 46% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 46% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 35% -21.8%
15% -27.9% 31% -29.4%
20% -35.0% 23% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$4 -47%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 7h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.28 · official $4.28 (match) · 65 history records