Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe8b9…3afc
weather · 708 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$899 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$860 · open −$75
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,608
Realized+$860
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses163 / 194
Open positions351
Markets (closed)357 / 708
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1032.8
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 351 History 357 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$548
7 days+$860
14 days+$860
30 days+$860
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $10 $40 +$30 (+294%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? No 91¢ 90¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Yes 10¢ 95¢ $3 $28 +$26 (+866%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Yes 40¢ 68¢ $16 $27 +$11 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? No 90¢ 94¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Yes 10¢ 100¢ $2 $25 +$22 (+907%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 12? No 93¢ 61¢ $37 $25 −$13 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? No 88¢ 94¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? No 93¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? No 97¢ 95¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? No 85¢ 74¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? No 94¢ 93¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Yes 23¢ 69¢ $5 $17 +$11 (+203%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Yes 11¢ 100¢ $2 $15 +$14 (+837%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $4 $15 +$11 (+253%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? No 97¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? No 90¢ 94¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 12 $5 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$9 +138%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +235%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$12 +378%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$8 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $9 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 12 $4 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 10? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 10? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 12 $13 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$785
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $4 4m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $4 5m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $4 5m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $4 7m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $7 9m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $3 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 16m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 17m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 31¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 31¢ $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $5 22m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 57¢ $3 25m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 357 +55.2% +40.4% 46% 40% +25.3%
≤30d 357 +55.2% +40.4% 46% 40% +25.3%
≤90d 357 +55.2% +40.4% 46% 40% +25.3%
all 357 +55.2% +40.4% 46% 40% +25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1032.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.4% 40% +25.3%
10% ← realistic here +27.0% 34% +13.3%
15% +14.7% 29% +2.4%
20% +3.5% 26% -7.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,607.84 · official $1,607.65 (match) · 3500 history records