Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:03:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8bc…ec51 other 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,634 (+6%) realized +$1,649 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate35%59W / 112L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$524
14 days−$203
30 days−$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$167
politics 1% +$65
crypto 1% −$6
sports 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -25.0% -32.1% 33% 13% -25.4%
≤30d 51 -18.0% -25.8% 33% 22% -12.7%
≤90d 171 -5.7% -14.7% 35% 25% -8.8%
all 171 -5.7% -14.7% 35% 25% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 25% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 20% -17.5%
15% -30.3% 17% -25.5%
20% -37.1% 14% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$54 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$1,649
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses59 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)171 / 173
History coverage82d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $28 $44 +$16 (+56%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $233 +$18 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $272 −$115 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $458 +$95 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $586 +$41 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $129 +$6 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $489 −$195 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $37 −$20 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $205 +$67 +33%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $58 −$5 -8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $363 +$134 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $57 −$52 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $117 −$66 -57%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -73%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $602 +$18 +3%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $103 +$476 +462%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $395 +$48 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $101 +$66 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 −$4 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $218 −$36 -17%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $318 +$77 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $393 +$91 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $73 −$64 -88%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $203 −$51 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $208 −$3 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $404 −$127 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $156 −$27 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $358 +$141 +40%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $212 −$5 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $124 +$66 +53%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $350 −$164 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $219 −$85 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $278 −$84 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $115 +$135 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $14 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $63 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $189 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $25 8h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 9h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 9h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 10h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $202 18h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 18h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $22 18h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $38 18h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 19h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 19h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $29 19h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 31h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 33h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $67 33h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.76 · official $43.76 (match) · 2640 history records