Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E8 0xe8c1…cefe other 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 772d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,647 (+12%) realized +$1,639 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate61%41W / 26L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$1,904now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$298
14 days+$317
30 days+$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$1,148
world 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$2
politics 2% +$115
sports 1% +$131
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.9% -5.1% 73% 20% -2.6%
≤30d 33 +5.3% -4.7% 70% 18% -2.5%
≤90d 39 +15.7% +4.7% 74% 23% +8.7%
all 67 +15.3% +4.4% 61% 31% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 31% +5.1%
10% -5.6% 21% -5.0%
15% -14.7% 18% -14.2%
20% -23.1% 16% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$22 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.69 per $1 lost it wins $3.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

772d coverage
Net worth$1,904
Realized+$1,639
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses41 / 26
Open positions21
Markets (closed)67 / 88
History coverage772d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 72¢ 69¢ $287 $278 −$9 (-3%)
Will Relay launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 84¢ $221 $247 +$27 (+12%)
Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 40¢ 47¢ $203 $236 +$33 (+16%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 57¢ 72¢ $163 $206 +$43 (+26%)
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $195 $182 −$13 (-7%)
Will Neutrl launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $174 $174 +$0 (+0%)
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $63 $60 −$3 (-5%)
Betmoar FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 92¢ 92¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $63 $54 −$9 (-14%)
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026? Yes 65¢ 65¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Neutrl FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-5%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 58¢ $52 $35 −$17 (-33%)
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch Yes 63¢ 53¢ $38 $32 −$6 (-16%)
Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 63¢ 47¢ $39 $29 −$10 (-26%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 56¢ 42¢ $35 $27 −$9 (-24%)
Will Neutrl launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 45¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-41%)
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 54¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-21%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 26 $26 $0 -0%
Valantis FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 26 $28 +$3 +12%
Neutrl FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 26 $17 $0 +1%
Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $117 +$1 +1%
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $108 −$9 -9%
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 24 $150 +$12 +8%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 23 $570 +$105 +18%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $631 +$29 +5%
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 21 $1,058 +$72 +7%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 21 $94 −$6 -6%
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $230 +$5 +2%
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $57 +$14 +24%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $42 +$3 +6%
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $2 $0 -5%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $754 +$70 +9%
Base FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jun 17 $101 $0 +0%
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 17 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 16 $74 −$3 -4%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $149 $0 -0%
Tread FDV above $500M one day after launch Jun 16 $88 +$5 +5%
Tread FDV above $400M one day after launch Jun 16 $27 +$1 +3%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 14 $77 +$4 +5%
Base FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $130 +$1 +0%
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $59 +$8 +13%
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $178 +$2 +1%
Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $26 +$2 +6%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -8%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 31 $30 −$1 -4%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 31 $106 $0 +0%
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 28 $129 +$83 +64%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 24 $323 +$11 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 18? May 18 $50 $0 +0%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 09 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $99 +$44 +45%
Octra FDV above $30M one day after launch? Apr 22 $22 +$44 +198%
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 21 $394 +$721 +183%
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 05 $14 +$2 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $368 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 15 $370 +$80 +22%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Aug 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q3 2025? Aug 20 $82 +$138 +169%
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? Aug 01 $122 +$16 +13%
Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? Jul 07 $182 −$3 -2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Jul 04 $6 −$1 -23%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? Jul 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? Jul 03 $10 −$9 -93%
Will GUTHIX win the PvP trading competition? Feb 18 $107 −$36 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 26¢ $1 11m
Valantis FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL Yes 53¢ $31 1h
Neutrl FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 85¢ $17 1h
Neutrl FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 8h
Neutrl FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 8h
Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 8h
Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 8h
Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 9h
Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $9 13h
Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $15 13h
Will Relay launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $4 14h
Will Relay launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $38 14h
Valantis FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 44¢ $23 17h
Will Relay launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $52 17h
Valantis FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 19h
Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $24 21h
Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $71 21h
Neutrl FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 23h
Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $53 32h
Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $16 32h
Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $16 33h
Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $16 33h
Will Relay launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $3 34h
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY Yes 63¢ $13 35h
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY Yes 63¢ $4 35h
Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $17 35h
Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 35h
Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $17 35h
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY Yes 64¢ $13 37h
Betmoar FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 92¢ $17 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,904.38 · official $1,904.42 (match) · 882 history records