Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe8c4…395d
sports · 685 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$5,514 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,350 · open +$1,141
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$120,602
Realized+$4,350
Unrealized+$1,141
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses246 / 207
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$3,222
Open positions299
Markets (closed)453 / 685
History coverage12d
Avg bet$502
Trades / day267.6
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 299 History 453 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41,791
7 days−$22,445
14 days+$4,350
30 days+$4,350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 50¢ 58¢ $5,625 $6,581 +$956 (+17%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 89¢ 99¢ $4,103 $4,555 +$452 (+11%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? No 90¢ 96¢ $3,650 $3,864 +$214 (+6%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 78¢ 92¢ $2,752 $3,208 +$456 (+17%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 90¢ $2,360 $2,272 −$89 (-4%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 69¢ $2,196 $1,715 −$481 (-22%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 76¢ $1,585 $1,685 +$100 (+6%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $1,434 $1,679 +$245 (+17%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 47¢ 46¢ $1,690 $1,636 −$54 (-3%)
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? No 66¢ 85¢ $1,205 $1,552 +$347 (+29%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 62¢ 82¢ $1,161 $1,545 +$384 (+33%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $1,482 $1,504 +$22 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1,463 $1,451 −$12 (-1%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 87¢ 82¢ $1,526 $1,438 −$88 (-6%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $1,316 $1,420 +$104 (+8%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $1,244 $1,387 +$142 (+11%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 89¢ 88¢ $1,372 $1,365 −$8 (-1%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $1,227 $1,294 +$66 (+5%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 73¢ 52¢ $1,821 $1,284 −$536 (-29%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1,217 $1,208 −$9 (-1%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1,198 $1,191 −$7 (-1%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 67¢ 88¢ $894 $1,181 +$287 (+32%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $1,115 $1,162 +$47 (+4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 96¢ $957 $1,088 +$131 (+14%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 85¢ 94¢ $958 $1,065 +$108 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 12 $541 −$541 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $173 −$173 -100%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-20? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Set Handicap: Bencic (-1.5) vs Stearns (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,792 −$1,792 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $584 −$584 -100%
Kosice: Mathys Erhard vs Stefan Dostanic Jun 12 $158 −$158 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Yusuke Takahashi Jun 12 $274 −$274 -100%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $600 −$600 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? Jun 12 $452 −$452 -100%
Cerundolo vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 12 $496 −$496 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik Jun 12 $772 −$772 -100%
Set Handicap: Mboko (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 12 $4,503 −$4,503 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $1,114 −$1,114 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $176 −$176 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 12 $512 −$512 -100%
Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 12 $582 −$582 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-23? Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 12 $1,107 −$1,107 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 12 $315 −$315 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $636 −$636 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 12 $533 −$533 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $566 −$566 -100%
Jodar vs. Busta: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 12 $580 −$580 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 12 $704 −$704 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $262 −$262 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $837 −$837 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 61m? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5) Jun 12 $450 −$450 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Jun 12 $165 −$165 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 12 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) Jun 12 $748 −$748 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 Jun 12 $549 −$549 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 12 $904 −$904 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $588 −$588 -100%
Joao Fonseca vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $369 −$369 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $1,267 −$1,267 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $336 −$336 -100%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO5) - Circuit Jun 12 $230 −$230 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $709 −$709 -100%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $763 −$763 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $874 −$874 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% +$87,523
other 17% +$2,452
world 10% +$1,835
politics 6% −$1,375
tech 2% −$712
crypto 0% +$624
finance 0% +$286
culture 0% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $59 7m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 45¢ $350 12m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 45¢ $15 12m
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 27¢ $27 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $49 24m
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 25m
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 27m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $435 27m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 58¢ $79 29m
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Tristan Boyer 45¢ $60 31m
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Tristan Boyer 45¢ $37 31m
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Tristan Boyer 45¢ $45 31m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $102 32m
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 79¢ $317 33m
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Majchrzak 54¢ $49 52m
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Majchrzak 54¢ $3 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $18 1h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 86¢ $37 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 77¢ $84 1h
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Majchrzak 54¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Majchrzak 54¢ $1 2h
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Petr Brunclik 49¢ $28 2h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Majchrzak 54¢ $1 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 77¢ $33 2h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 86¢ $247 2h
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Petr Brunclik 49¢ $1 2h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Majchrzak 54¢ $12 3h
Elena Rybakina vs. Tatjana Maria: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $257 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 333 -8.9% -17.6% 49% 47% -19.0%
≤30d 453 +3.2% -6.6% 54% 51% -8.1%
≤90d 453 +3.2% -6.6% 54% 51% -8.1%
all 453 +3.2% -6.6% 54% 51% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover267.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 51% -8.1%
10% -15.5% 49% -16.9%
15% ← realistic here -23.7% 43% -25.0%
20% -31.2% 36% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120,602.18 · official $120,603.20 (match) · 3500 history records