Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E8 0xe8c5…7a13 world 71 markets active 23h ago coverage 551d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$9,613 (+5%) realized +$7,493 · open +$2,120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate66%45W / 23L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,900per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$37,883now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$384
14 days+$999
30 days+$2,883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$12,553
other 19% −$2,132
tech 5% +$402
sports 0% −$698
crypto 0% −$660
finance 0% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 10 +7.4% -2.9% 90% 10% -5.5%
≤90d 35 +47.2% +33.2% 71% 29% -6.3%
all 68 +27.8% +15.6% 66% 37% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.6% 37% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here +4.5% 31% -14.4%
15% -5.6% 24% -22.7%
20% -14.8% 18% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$2,576) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$579 vs −$809 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$37,883
Realized+$7,493
Unrealized+$2,120
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses45 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage551d
Avg bet$2,900
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $19,182 $20,524 +$1,342 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 76¢ 81¢ $12,715 $13,707 +$991 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $3,866 $3,653 −$213 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $1,989 +$65 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $7,338 +$79 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $1,893 +$4 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $14,418 +$236 +2%
Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 07 $960 −$63 -6%
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 07 $4,407 +$188 +4%
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 07 $6,452 +$274 +4%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $405 +$216 +53%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $16,517 +$1,659 +10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $10,579 +$225 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 16 $14,888 +$1,556 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $1,773 +$56 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 29 $8,961 +$3,817 +43%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $4,503 −$8 -0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 13 above $420? Apr 18 $495 +$25 +5%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 13 above $400? Apr 18 $824 +$185 +22%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 13 above $410? Apr 18 $1,486 +$414 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 17 $830 −$260 -31%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 17 $247 +$3 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on April 15? Apr 16 $61 +$1 +1%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 15? Apr 16 $102 +$87 +86%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on April 15? Apr 16 $2,576 +$78 +3%
Will Anish Giri win on 2026-04-15 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 15 $110 +$11 +10%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on April 15? Apr 15 $497 −$497 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on April 14? Apr 15 $3,222 +$346 +11%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-15 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 14 $8,580 +$1,106 +13%
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 11 $23 +$4 +15%
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 08 $2,108 −$2,104 -100%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 05 $1,800 +$198 +11%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 03 $1,531 +$805 +53%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 02 $79 −$9 -11%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 02 $4,284 −$1,487 -35%
Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Mar 30 $68 −$65 -95%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28? Mar 22 $2,728 −$2,728 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on February 12? Feb 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 09 $667 −$660 -99%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? Feb 08 $654 +$255 +39%
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 08 $3,998 +$48 +1%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 07 $1,369 −$1,369 -100%
Will Denis Lazavik win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 07 $375 +$5 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28, 2026? Feb 05 $1,802 +$35 +2%
Will Russia enter Toretske by February 28? Feb 05 $791 +$20 +2%
Will Russia enter Sofiivka by February 28? Feb 05 $2,421 +$52 +2%
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28? Feb 01 $529 −$529 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? Feb 01 $3,808 +$2,427 +64%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31? Jan 18 $264 +$58 +22%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026? Jan 18 $250 +$80 +32%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31? Jan 17 $200 +$62 +31%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? Jan 11 $2,898 +$840 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $3,659 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $3 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $45 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $3 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $946 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $402 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,577 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,024 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $189 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $2,303 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $14 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $9 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $27 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $1 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $8 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $27 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $1 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $27 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $14 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $14 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,883.26 · official $37,885.59 (match) · 1384 history records