Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8c6…276a sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$66 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%39W / 31L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day79.0pace
Fees−$532est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$644now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$316
7 days−$12
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$735
other 6% +$609
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -6.2% -15.1% 56% 33% -9.6%
≤30d 70 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 33% -9.8%
≤90d 70 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 33% -9.8%
all 70 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 33% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 33% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 29% -18.4%
15% -31.0% 24% -26.3%
20% -37.7% 24% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$170 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$644
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses39 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$532
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage8d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day79.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 81¢ $192 $326 +$134 (+70%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 36¢ $264 $180 −$84 (-32%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Tunisia 51¢ 28¢ $255 $138 −$118 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $580 +$358 +62%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $570 +$430 +75%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $105 −$103 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $66 −$65 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $240 +$259 +108%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $694 +$139 +20%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $67 +$17 +25%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $174 −$173 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $45 −$45 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $263 −$229 -87%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $115 −$113 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $180 +$257 +143%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $194 +$289 +149%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$50 -49%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $68 +$151 +222%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $710 −$142 -20%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $112 +$56 +50%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $540 −$462 -86%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $65 −$65 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $260 −$260 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,560 +$6 +0%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $35 +$12 +35%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $440 +$511 +116%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $165 +$151 +92%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $126 +$134 +106%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $63 −$42 -66%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $990 −$320 -32%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $63 −$63 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $235 +$20 +8%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $63 −$63 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,000 +$30 +3%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $259 −$259 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $136 +$195 +143%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $75 −$70 -93%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $211 +$18 +9%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $335 +$32 +10%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,110 −$618 -56%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $560 +$439 +78%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $224 +$113 +50%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $350 +$649 +185%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $325 +$174 +54%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $496 −$393 -79%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $510 −$510 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $540 +$10 +2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $400 +$20 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $268 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 51¢ $255 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $192 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 97¢ $92 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 97¢ $5 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 96¢ $96 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 95¢ $76 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 95¢ $19 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 90¢ $4 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 90¢ $223 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 90¢ $200 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 90¢ $22 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $54 3h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 3h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 3h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $48 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $38 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $160 9h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $42 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $643.55 · official $643.59 (match) · 612 history records