Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8c7…1942 other 1176 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$502 (-2%) realized −$502 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%253W / 917L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day39.4pace
Fees−$134est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$746
14 days−$822
30 days−$864
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$584
sports 26% −$280
crypto 6% −$190
weather 3% +$39
world 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -42.4% -47.9% 19% 18% -48.7%
≤30d 709 -11.3% -19.7% 22% 21% -17.8%
≤90d 1170 -8.6% -17.3% 22% 21% -14.7%
all 1170 -8.6% -17.3% 22% 21% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 21% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 21% -22.8%
15% -32.4% 20% -30.3%
20% -39.0% 20% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$17 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$502
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses253 / 917
Est. fees paid−$134
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1170 / 1176
History coverage49d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1170 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$9 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$8 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +75%
CD Universidad de Concepción leading at halftime? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
UD Almería leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
CD Unión La Calera leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Goiás EC leading at halftime? Jun 14 $19 +$76 +388%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $21 +$144 +704%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $88 −$88 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$15 +204%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Maghreb AS de Fès leading at halftime? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Kawkab AC leading at halftime? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$13 +176%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $20 +$20 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$43 +213%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$7 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $3 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $9 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $11 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $10 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2965 history records