Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9.5
score
E8 0xe8ca…cccb sports 812 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$71,934 (+50%) realized +$72,116 · open −$182
Gross ROI / mkt +135% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +81% what you keep after slip
Net edge+81%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate76%612W / 197L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$2,224est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days+$15,270
14 days+$18,251
30 days+$26,648
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$51,325
other 14% +$3,942
world 0% +$81
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+112.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +162.4% +137.4% 88% 86% +52.8%
≤30d 215 +180.4% +153.7% 72% 68% +30.5%
≤90d 769 +129.5% +107.7% 75% 68% +25.2%
all 809 +134.8% +112.4% 76% 68% +24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +112.4% 68% +24.9%
10% ← realistic here +92.1% 56% +13.0%
15% +73.6% 48% +2.1%
20% +56.5% 40% -7.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +135% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +120% → late +149% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$82 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.45 per $1 lost it wins $4.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$510
Realized+$72,116
Unrealized−$182
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses612 / 197
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$2,224
Open positions3
Markets (closed)809 / 812
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$175
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 809 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Club ABB (-1.5) Bamin Real Potosí 71¢ 45¢ $547 $347 −$199 (-36%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 52¢ 66¢ $74 $93 +$19 (+26%)
Will Club ABB win on 2026-05-14? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $72 $70 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golubic vs. Kenin: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 +9634%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $135 −$20 -15%
Viktorija Golubic vs. Sofia Kenin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $0 +$1 +9621%
Perricard vs. Moutet: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $116 +$34 +29%
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $207 +$93 +45%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 15 $703 −$256 -36%
Golubic vs. Kenin: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $1 +$47 +4503%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 15 $264 +$33 +12%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 15 $264 +$63 +24%
Honor of Kings: JD Gaming vs SYGaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +32%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Cirstea vs. Raducanu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $1,543 +$1,439 +93%
Cristian vs. Boulter: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $108 +$24 +22%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $208 +$22 +11%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,123 +$1,512 +135%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,658 +$1,267 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,747 +$1,178 +68%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $527 +$371 +70%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,305 +$802 +62%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $897 +$1,457 +162%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 11 $3 +$2 +83%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $16 +$1 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $260 +$396 +152%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $40 +$7 +18%
ITF Madrid: Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Marta Soriano Santiago Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,374 +$405 +17%
Set 1 Winner: Velikova vs Ivanovic Jun 11 $1,055 +$452 +43%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Martha Matoula vs Anna Dvorackova Jun 11 $3 +$3 +72%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $160 −$8 -5%
ITF Kayseri: Ustiniya Lekomtseva vs Sofiia Bielinska Jun 11 $523 +$207 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1,003 +$242 +24%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $296 +$458 +155%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,577 +$1,289 +50%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $20 +$18 +88%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $4 +$1 +32%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $779 +$2,032 +261%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $663 +$1,087 +164%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $587 +$384 +65%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $14 +$4 +31%
Struff vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $482 +$127 +26%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $29 +$7 +24%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $7 +$1 +12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $240 +$54 +23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $92 +$10 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $25 +$7 +27%
Demin vs. Laaroussi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $21 +$20 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 29¢ $108 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 33¢ $5 21h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 33¢ $2 21h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $135 21h
Perricard vs. Moutet: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 87¢ $9 22h
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 72¢ $109 24h
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 65¢ $99 24h
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 77¢ $116 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $75 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 79¢ $5 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $4 39h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 10¢ $132 41h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 11¢ $31 41h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh $105 45h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 11¢ $75 46h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh $75 47h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 13¢ $17 47h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 14¢ $11 47h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 18¢ $279 47h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 13¢ $363 47h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 10¢ $61 47h
Golubic vs. Kenin: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 SELL Over 48¢ $48 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) SELL 9z 60¢ $296 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) SELL FUT Esports 66¢ $327 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 52¢ $264 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $264 2d
Honor of Kings: JD Gaming vs SYGaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 SELL JD Gaming 70¢ $10 2d
Viktorija Golubic vs. Sofia Kenin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 $0 2d
Golubic vs. Kenin: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over $0 2d
Golubic vs. Kenin: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $510.46 · official $510.46 (match) · 3500 history records