Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe8cb…0110 crypto 131 markets active 3d ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$61 (+0%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate94%122W / 8L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% +$39
crypto 39% +$21
other 0% −$1
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% +$1
world 0% +$3
sports 0% −$6
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 17% -9.3%
≤90d 28 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 7% -9.4%
all 130 +2.5% -7.3% 94% 23% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 23% -9.3%
10% -16.1% 11% -18.0%
15% -24.2% 5% -25.9%
20% -31.7% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses122 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage628d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $111 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? Jun 13 $102 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? May 30 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 30 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 7? May 24 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $210 $0 +0%
Will Tesla dip to $248 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1840-1919 tweets in April 2026? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? May 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will Iran strike Poland by April 30, 2026? May 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 27? May 04 $188 $0 +0%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 26 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 19? Apr 20 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 16? Apr 19 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 6? Apr 08 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 3? Apr 05 $201 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for math on March 31? Apr 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026? Apr 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 1? Apr 02 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 22? Mar 23 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 21 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? Mar 15 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 10? Mar 11 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 09 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 4? Mar 07 $201 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Mar 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 1? Mar 03 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 21? Feb 21 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 16 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 7 Feb 08 $191 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 5 Feb 05 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 3? Feb 04 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $180 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January? Feb 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $7 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $111 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $102 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $193 25d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? BUY No 88¢ $6 31d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $200 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $210 45d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $188 52d
Will Tesla dip to $248 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 57d
Will Elon Musk post 1840-1919 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 57d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $180 60d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $187 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $181 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $187 69d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 71d
Will Iran strike Poland by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? BUY No 99¢ $6 71d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $195 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $201 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $197 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $188 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $190 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $194 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $194 86d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 88d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for math on March 31? BUY No 99¢ $4 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $194 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $193 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $197 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.25 · official $114.25 (match) · 327 history records