Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8cc…3647 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$42 (-7%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$103
other 47% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -23.4% -30.7% 38% 38% +3.9%
≤30d 16 -23.4% -30.7% 38% 38% +3.9%
≤90d 16 -23.4% -30.7% 38% 38% +3.9%
all 16 -23.4% -30.7% 38% 38% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 38% +3.9%
10% -37.4% 31% -6.0%
15% -43.4% 31% -15.1%
20% -49.0% 19% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$14 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $31 +$39 +126%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $96 +$54 +56%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $108 +$38 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $73 +$35 +48%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $33 −$6 -19%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $31 −$17 -56%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $52 +$50 +95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$49 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$24 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $69 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $31 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 86¢ $151 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $59 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $50 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 54¢ $46 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 54¢ $51 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $146 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $108 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $26 11h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 37¢ $26 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $46 12h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 44¢ $33 12h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) BUY Netherlands 11¢ $1 12h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) BUY Netherlands 11¢ $5 12h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands 19¢ $14 12h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 41¢ $31 13h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 99¢ $102 13h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 50¢ $52 14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 44h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.74 · official $9.74 (match) · 39 history records