Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:30:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8cd…4b4d crypto 705 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (265 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$98 (+1%) realized +$102 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate53%372W / 331L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day265.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$145
7 days+$93
14 days+$171
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$164
weather 0% +$7
other 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (265 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 437 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 28% -7.6%
≤30d 703 +9.3% -1.1% 53% 27% -7.0%
≤90d 703 +9.3% -1.1% 53% 27% -7.0%
all 703 +9.3% -1.1% 53% 27% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover265.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 27% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 22% -15.9%
15% -19.2% 20% -24.1%
20% -27.1% 19% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses372 / 331
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)703 / 705
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day265.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 703 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 76¢ 88¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 27¢ 12¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-57%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 140 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $23 −$13 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $19 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.27 · official $30.71 (match) · 3500 history records