Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:02:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8d0…5542 crypto 1677 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (244 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,643 (+14%) realized +$4,682 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate98%1642W / 31L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day244.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$30
other 42% +$226
tech 5% −$47
finance 3% −$27
weather 1% +$4
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (244 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1539 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 3% -9.0%
≤30d 1673 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 1673 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 3% -9.1%
all 1673 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover244.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 3% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 1% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 1% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized+$4,682
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1642 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions61
Markets (closed)1673 / 1677
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day244.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 1673 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $79 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Down 99¢ 78¢ $79 $63 −$16 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $660 in May? Yes 99¢ 50¢ $50 $25 −$24 (-49%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+5%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 76¢ 90¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 28¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-52%)
Will the National Union for Democracy and Progress win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes 0¢ 9¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+9350%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 15¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-64%)
Will Kwa Na Kwa win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+4850%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 83¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+67%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+2000%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-49%)
Will the Union for Central African Renewal win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+900%)
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+750%)
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+650%)
Will Petr Yan fight Dominick Cruz next? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+650%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Will ThunderTalk Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+300%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$11 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $72 +$8 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $79 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $19 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $79 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$1 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $79 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $79 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$19 +93%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $59 +$1 +1%
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 15 20 Jun 18 $0 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $48 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $59 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $79 2m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $25 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $72 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 4h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $79 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $19 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.14 · official $358.14 (match) · 3500 history records