Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8d1…23c0 sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 637d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$245 (-5%) realized −$246 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$78
politics 25% −$34
other 5% −$133
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 50 -10.2% -18.8% 24% 20% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 20% -14.3%
10% -26.5% 20% -22.5%
15% -33.6% 18% -30.0%
20% -40.1% 18% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

637d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage637d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 45¢ 46¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 12 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 11 $1,481 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 10 $310 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 10 $470 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $350 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $451 $0 -0%
Devils vs. Penguins Jan 08 $64 −$64 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves Jan 08 $56 −$56 -100%
Hawks vs. Pacers Oct 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Oct 31 $7 +$8 +108%
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Jul 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Marlins vs. Brewers Jul 28 $11 +$22 +212%
Padres vs. Marlins Jul 25 $5 +$5 +96%
Orioles vs. Guardians Jul 21 $3 −$3 -100%
MLB All-Star Game Jul 21 $4 +$4 +92%
Astros vs. Rays May 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Celtics vs. Knicks May 19 $8 +$6 +75%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 17 $1 $0 +29%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $4 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 03 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Flyers vs. Red Wings Dec 19 $106 +$98 +92%
Faithless elector in US election? Dec 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will there be 145,000,000-150,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be less than 130,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidentia Dec 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Democrats win popular vote by 5-6%? Dec 18 $3 −$3 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 5-6%? Dec 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bulls vs. Raptors Dec 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bronny score in his next game? Nov 20 $154 −$154 -100%
WNBA: Lynx vs. Sun Series Winner Oct 16 $67 +$41 +61%
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Oct 07 $36 +$31 +85%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 03 $13 +$20 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 45¢ $50 1h
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $719 168d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $720 168d
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $740 168d
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $741 170d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $310 170d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $470 170d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $470 171d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $310 171d
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $739 171d
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $740 171d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $350 171d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $451 171d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $350 172d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $451 172d
Devils vs. Penguins BUY Devils 49¢ $64 172d
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves BUY Cavaliers 44¢ $56 172d
Hawks vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 45¢ $11 241d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 48¢ $7 243d
Blue Jays vs. Orioles BUY Blue Jays 54¢ $33 336d
Marlins vs. Brewers BUY Marlins 32¢ $11 339d
Padres vs. Marlins BUY Marlins 51¢ $5 342d
Orioles vs. Guardians BUY Orioles 46¢ $3 343d
MLB All-Star Game BUY National League 52¢ $4 349d
Astros vs. Rays BUY Rays 56¢ $17 406d
Celtics vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 57¢ $8 409d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 412d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 412d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $5 413d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $5 413d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.59 · official $49.59 (match) · 109 history records