Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8d1…f54b crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-5%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day52.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$142
politics 9% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -37.8% -43.7% 28% 28% -28.8%
≤30d 39 -37.8% -43.7% 28% 28% -28.8%
≤90d 39 -37.8% -43.7% 28% 28% -28.8%
all 39 -37.8% -43.7% 28% 28% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.7% 28% -28.8%
10% ← realistic here -49.1% 26% -35.6%
15% -54.0% 26% -41.9%
20% -58.5% 18% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$17 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day52.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $206 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $128 +$97 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$46 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$56 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$11 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$8 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$11 +200%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 23 $108 −$49 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records