Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:53:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8d3…04b9 other 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 222L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$32
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$39
sports 25% −$24
politics 8% −$7
culture 8% −$7
economics 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$3
world 2% −$1
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 1% -9.7%
all 233 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)233 / 234
History coverage125d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $380 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $283 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $432 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $139 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $130 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $171 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $509 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $156 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $326 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $386 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $174 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $613 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $135 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $292 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $321 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $188 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $401 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $420 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $295 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $134 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $328 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $45 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $45 2h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $45 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 5h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 6h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $45 9h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 11h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 12h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $45 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $45 16h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 17h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 18h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 24h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 26h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 30h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 31h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 33h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 35h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $46 35h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $46 36h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $46 39h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 40h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 42h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 43h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 44h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 46h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.57 · official $44.57 (match) · 1350 history records