Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe8dd…ec86
weather · 630 markets active 15d ago
0.0score
−$96,640 -50%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$96,251 · open −$389
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$96,251
Unrealized−$389
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses26 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions6
Markets (closed)158 / 630
History coverage1d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day2765.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 6 History 158 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$795
7 days−$795
14 days−$795
30 days−$96,251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 8¢ $1 $20 +$19 (+1954%)
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $425 $18 −$407 (-96%)
Will Lesil McGuire win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Jessica Faircloth win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Gregg Brelsford win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Destry J. Payne Sr. win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $193 $0 −$193 (-100%)
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $193 $0 −$193 (-100%)
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $193 $0 −$193 (-100%)
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $193 $0 −$193 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $691 −$691 -100%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $1,211 −$1,211 -100%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $299 −$88 -30%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $299 −$88 -30%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $1,211 −$1,211 -100%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $298 −$88 -30%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $299 −$88 -30%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $54 +$156 +287%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $298 −$88 -30%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $299 −$88 -30%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $190 −$189 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $299 −$88 -30%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $195 −$83 -42%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $1,211 −$1,211 -100%
Will Egypt vs. Russia end in a draw? May 28 $405 −$309 -76%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $996 −$924 -93%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $297 −$87 -29%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,187 −$1,113 -94%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,255 −$1,225 -98%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 28 $7 +$8 +105%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $299 −$88 -30%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $255 −$49 -19%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $299 −$88 -30%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 28 $58 −$45 -79%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 28 $1,236 −$1,236 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 28 $52 +$309 +600%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 29? May 28 $34 −$31 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on May 29? May 28 $69 −$60 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 29? May 28 $42 −$35 -82%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,232 −$1,149 -93%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,088 −$961 -88%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,127 −$1,097 -97%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,263 −$1,233 -98%
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,270 −$1,240 -98%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,251 −$1,220 -98%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,243 −$1,213 -98%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,054 −$1,023 -97%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,004 −$974 -97%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,007 −$968 -96%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,226 −$1,145 -93%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,249 −$1,219 -98%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,054 −$1,054 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,120 −$1,054 -94%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,242 −$1,212 -98%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,054 −$1,024 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 40% −$37,055
other 21% −$27,252
weather 13% −$7,821
economics 10% −$8,363
tech 9% −$9,847
world 5% −$3,335
culture 1% −$1,852
sports 1% −$321
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? BUY No 49¢ $7 14d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 14d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 14d
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 14d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 14d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 14d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 14d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 14d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 86¢ $97 14d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 14d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 14d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 14d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 14d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 18¢ $4 14d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 18¢ $14 14d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 18¢ $20 14d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 14d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 14d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 14d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 86¢ $81 14d
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 14d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 14d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $98 14d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $111 14d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 14d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 14d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 14d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 14d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 158 -34.9% -41.1% 16% 9% -86.2%
≤90d 158 -34.9% -41.1% 16% 9% -86.2%
all 158 -34.9% -41.1% 16% 9% -86.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2765.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.1% 9% -86.2%
10% -46.8% 8% -87.5%
15% ← realistic here -51.9% 6% -88.7%
20% -56.6% 6% -89.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.83 · official $40.83 (match) · 3500 history records