Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E8 0xe8df…8234 crypto 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$206 (+11%) realized +$206 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%29W / 41L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day85.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$627
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +26.6% +14.5% 41% 41% +22.3%
≤30d 70 +26.6% +14.5% 41% 41% +22.3%
≤90d 70 +26.6% +14.5% 41% 41% +22.3%
all 70 +26.6% +14.5% 41% 41% +22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.5% 41% +22.3%
10% ← realistic here +3.6% 41% +10.6%
15% -6.4% 37% -0.1%
20% -15.6% 29% -9.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$15 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$206
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses29 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day85.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $260 +$154 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$75 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $61 +$28 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $75 +$30 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $83 +$75 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$208 +978%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $90 −$89 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$40 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$24 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $111 +$85 +77%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$38 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$161 +816%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$80 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$15 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $45 +$19 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$12 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$9 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$19 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$22 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $13 +$42 +318%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $97 +$68 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $39 −$37 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 254 history records