Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8e0…7eec sports 339 markets active 4d ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (180 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,892 (-5%) realized −$3,880 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%166W / 562L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day180.2pace
Fees−$858est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$4,559
crypto 2% +$349
other 2% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (180 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-51.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 441 -78.5% -80.6% 8% 6% -87.2%
≤30d 728 -46.2% -51.3% 23% 19% -37.7%
≤90d 728 -46.2% -51.3% 23% 19% -37.7%
all 728 -46.2% -51.3% 23% 19% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover180.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.3% 19% -37.7%
10% ← realistic here -56.0% 16% -43.7%
15% -60.2% 12% -49.1%
20% -64.1% 9% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$69 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,880
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses166 / 562
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$858
Open positions1
Markets (closed)728 / 339
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$220
Trades / day180.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 728 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 57¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm Jun 17 $369 −$366 -99%
Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
World Championships: USA vs. Germany Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Aurora win on 2026-05-15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Petra Marcinko Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs Jun 17 $24 +$62 +262%
World Championships: Austria vs. Germany Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Nemiga (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Seri Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - BC Game Maste Jun 17 $45 −$3 -6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-21? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group C Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-21? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Ghools Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Grou Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 17 $8 +$251 +3001%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Recoleta FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-KRÜ Esports vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South Amer Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: MIR vs WIP Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group C Jun 17 $332 −$327 -98%
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Czechia Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 3500 history records