Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe8e3…68c1 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$202 (-3%) realized −$199 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%19W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$286
7 days+$286
14 days+$118
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$639
sports 43% +$599
world 3% −$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +44.7% +30.9% 100% 100% +30.9%
≤30d 16 -17.2% -25.1% 44% 44% -7.0%
≤90d 36 -9.4% -18.0% 42% 42% -6.7%
all 50 -20.4% -28.0% 38% 38% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 38% -12.6%
10% -34.9% 38% -21.0%
15% -41.2% 38% -28.6%
20% -47.0% 30% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$106 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized−$199
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses19 / 31
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage150d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $242 $240 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $192 +$86 +45%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $204 +$89 +44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $242 +$111 +46%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $199 −$196 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $197 −$194 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $120 −$117 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $166 +$155 +93%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $199 +$165 +83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $225 −$222 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $272 +$243 +89%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Kyrgyz Republic win on 2026-06-03? May 31 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Kenya win on 2026-06-03? May 31 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $194 +$440 +226%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $209 −$205 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $153 −$150 -98%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score May 24 $30 +$27 +89%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $46 −$40 -88%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $101 −$89 -88%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $46 +$44 +97%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $103 +$322 +314%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $98 +$66 +67%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $17 −$17 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $72 +$246 +344%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) May 13 $161 −$159 -99%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $98 +$63 +64%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $103 +$58 +57%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $97 −$95 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $230 −$227 -99%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $84 −$82 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $286 +$231 +81%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $80 −$78 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $484 −$484 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 22 $182 −$98 -54%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Lamine Yamal: Anytime Goalscorer Mar 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Mar 21 $499 +$227 +46%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $98 +$71 +72%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Mar 18 $300 +$299 +100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 3 - 1 Galatasaray SK? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5 Mar 17 $200 +$103 +51%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aurora Gaming vs Alter Ego (BO7) - World Cha Jan 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $245 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 94¢ $278 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $192 15h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $204 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $212 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $199 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $197 8d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $120 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $321 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $166 9d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $199 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $225 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $516 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $272 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 59¢ $100 19d
Will Kyrgyz Republic win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 24d
Will Kenya win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $634 24d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $82 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $71 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $153 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $123 25d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $128 25d
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $58 30d
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $30 31d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 31d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 7¢ $12 31d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.90 · official $268.90 (match) · 79 history records