Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8e3…970f crypto 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%63W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$37
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$75
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.2% -20.6% 44% 33% -17.6%
≤30d 101 -14.8% -22.9% 44% 33% -18.0%
≤90d 144 -14.2% -22.4% 44% 32% -16.5%
all 144 -14.2% -22.4% 44% 32% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 32% -16.5%
10% -29.8% 26% -24.5%
15% -36.6% 10% -31.8%
20% -42.8% 6% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses63 / 81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage35d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 144 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$11 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $44 −$22 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $44 +$17 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$5 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 04 $9 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 04 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 04 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 04 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 04 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 29 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 26 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 26 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 26 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 26 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 26 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 26 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 25 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 25 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 24 $4 −$1 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $23 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $12 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $20 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $14 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $36 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 441 history records