Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E8 0xe8ea…e3e3 other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%18W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$360
14 days+$360
30 days+$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$1,424
sports 33% −$1,139
politics 6% −$220
world 4% +$197
crypto 2% −$116
tech 1% −$54
economics 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +91.0% +72.8% 40% 40% +107.0%
≤30d 10 +91.0% +72.8% 40% 40% +107.0%
≤90d 10 +91.0% +72.8% 40% 40% +107.0%
all 81 +11.8% +1.1% 22% 21% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 21% -8.1%
10% -8.6% 20% -16.8%
15% -17.4% 15% -24.9%
20% -25.5% 15% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +128% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$48 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses18 / 63
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage196d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes $178 $178 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $95 +$15 +16%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$47 +154%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$7 +23%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$41 -80%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$10 -40%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $34 +$356 +1054%
Merrimack College Warriors vs. Niagara Purple Eagles Mar 01 $303 −$249 -82%
Quinnipiac Bobcats vs. Canisius Golden Griffins Mar 01 $160 −$160 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 03 $42 −$42 -99%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 03 $40 −$5 -12%
Weber State Wildcats vs. Sacramento State Hornets Feb 03 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders Feb 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump say "Unbelievable" or "Fantastic" or "Incredible" 10+ times Jan 18 $190 −$190 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 18 $80 +$4 +6%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $45 −$45 -100%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 20 $100 −$54 -54%
Heat vs. Celtics Dec 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Akron Zips Dec 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs. Washington Huskies Dec 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Chattanooga Mocs vs. Auburn Tigers Dec 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Northwestern State Demons vs. California Golden Bears Dec 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Rice Owls Dec 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Creighton Bluejays Dec 13 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 13 $62 +$40 +64%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $115 −$115 -100%
Evansville Aces vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Dec 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Dec 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Metz win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Iona Gaels vs. St. John's Red Storm Dec 13 $38 −$36 -94%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Andorra win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $5 +$94 +1880%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $76 −$76 -100%
UT Martin Skyhawks vs. Southern Illinois Salukis Dec 11 $85 −$85 -100%
Charleston Cougars vs. South Florida Bulls Dec 11 $179 −$179 -100%
Salish Kootenai Bison vs. Montana Grizzlies Dec 11 $48 −$48 -100%
Boston College Eagles vs. Massachusetts Minutemen Dec 11 $250 +$61 +24%
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Purdue Boilermakers Dec 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Dec 11 $107 −$80 -75%
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. UNC Asheville Bulldogs Dec 11 $18 −$13 -72%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) Dec 11 $23 −$1 -4%
Fisher College Falcons vs. Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks Dec 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 59m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $171 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $110 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 89¢ $44 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 67¢ $34 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $95 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $21 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 34¢ $18 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $12 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $9 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $9 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $9 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $389 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $13 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $9 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.15 · official $178.15 (match) · 322 history records