Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8eb…515a other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$151 (-13%) realized −$148 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$287
14 days−$165
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$87
crypto 8% −$24
sports 6% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -42.9% -48.3% 32% 32% -39.1%
≤30d 38 -35.0% -41.2% 37% 37% -23.0%
≤90d 38 -35.0% -41.2% 37% 37% -23.0%
all 38 -35.0% -41.2% 37% 37% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.2% 37% -23.0%
10% -46.8% 37% -30.3%
15% -51.9% 34% -37.1%
20% -56.6% 24% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$24 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$148
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage10d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $90 $87 −$3 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
Jordy Caicedo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$26 +73%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 +$7 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 +$19 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $96 +$52 +54%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Salem Al Dawsari: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $37 +$91 +246%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 −$50 -84%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$24 -78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $85 +$91 +108%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $86 +$37 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $86 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 22h
Jordy Caicedo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $10 25h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $10 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 28h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $31 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $18 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $148 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $96 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 6d
Salem Al Dawsari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $5 6d
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.62 · official $87.62 (match) · 76 history records