Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:54:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8ed…579d other 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-28%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$7
other 31% −$4
sports 15% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -43.3% -48.7% 33% 27% -43.8%
≤30d 15 -43.3% -48.7% 33% 27% -43.8%
≤90d 15 -43.3% -48.7% 33% 27% -43.8%
all 15 -43.3% -48.7% 33% 27% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.7% 27% -43.8%
10% -53.6% 27% -49.2%
15% -58.1% 20% -54.1%
20% -62.2% 7% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 22
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Akram Afif: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -63%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Abde Ezzalzouli: 1+ shots Jun 13 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 10m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 40h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 40h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 41h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 41h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 43h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2d
Akram Afif: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Abde Ezzalzouli: 1+ shots SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Abde Ezzalzouli: 1+ shots BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 47¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $2 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.82 · official $4.82 (match) · 40 history records