Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:54:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8ef…ddda other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%22W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days+$95
14 days+$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$63
sports 14% +$50
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.3% -9.3% 53% 53% +13.8%
≤30d 46 -3.2% -12.4% 48% 46% -5.0%
≤90d 46 -3.2% -12.4% 48% 46% -5.0%
all 46 -3.2% -12.4% 48% 46% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 46% -5.0%
10% -20.8% 37% -14.1%
15% -28.4% 30% -22.4%
20% -35.5% 24% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$31 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$910
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions20
Markets (closed)46 / 66
History coverage18d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $150 $126 −$24 (-16%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 27¢ $78 $113 +$36 (+46%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $50 $87 +$37 (+73%)
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 87¢ $49 $67 +$18 (+36%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 57¢ $60 $59 −$2 (-3%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 31¢ $66 $51 −$15 (-22%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 56¢ $51 $45 −$6 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $54 $42 −$12 (-22%)
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advance Australia 44¢ 44¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 66¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $36 $30 −$6 (-17%)
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 48¢ 64¢ $15 $19 +$5 (+32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $24 $19 −$5 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-25%)
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $11 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $50 +$19 +37%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $36 +$36 +100%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $15 −$14 -98%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $121 +$34 +28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W Jun 26 $19 +$39 +206%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $17 +$24 +147%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI Jun 25 $130 −$103 -79%
Will Czechia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 25 $37 +$43 +117%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $152 +$109 +72%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $121 +$46 +38%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $39 +$23 +59%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $57 +$80 +140%
Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIF Jun 22 $22 $0 +2%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ivory Coast be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 Jun 22 $17 −$12 -75%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 +$79 +365%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$75 +365%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$14 +18%
Will Ecuador be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 21 $48 −$4 -7%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 20 $102 +$26 +25%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $43 −$34 -79%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Senegal be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -18%
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 +$21 +226%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$22 -51%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$5 +24%
Will Czechia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Will South Korea be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Japan be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wo Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +13%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $40 +$6 +14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $26 +$11 +42%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $61 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 84¢ $60 5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $22 12h
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 15h
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advance BUY Australia 44¢ $39 19h
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 22h
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $18 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 50¢ $16 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 30h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 30h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $25 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 4d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $17 4d
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI SELL Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $39 6d
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI SELL Yes 10¢ $16 6d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 6d
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI SELL Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIF SELL Yes 74¢ $22 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $910.02 · official $909.76 (match) · 182 history records