Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8f5…f276 crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$313 (+4%) realized +$281 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day111.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$322
other 1% −$20
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -16.1% -24.1% 35% 30% -5.6%
≤30d 20 -16.1% -24.1% 35% 30% -5.6%
≤90d 20 -16.1% -24.1% 35% 30% -5.6%
all 20 -16.1% -24.1% 35% 30% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 30% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 30% -14.6%
15% -38.0% 30% -22.8%
20% -44.1% 25% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$479 vs −$236 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized+$281
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day111.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 27¢ 34¢ $190 $231 +$42 (+22%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 42¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $729 +$1,192 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $199 −$189 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $522 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $418 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $625 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $419 +$163 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $418 +$683 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $538 −$20 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $417 +$625 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $474 −$452 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $522 −$11 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $730 −$234 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $430 −$163 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $311 +$327 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $209 +$362 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $209 −$200 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $94 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.44 · official $324.84 · 117 history records