Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:26:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe8f7…69c3
crypto · 122 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$774 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$919 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$919
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses22 / 99
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage98d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 121 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$94
14 days−$94
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $32 $46 +$15 (+45%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in May? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? No 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in May? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in May? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $30 −$28 -94%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 12 $3 −$1 -21%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $3 −$1 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$9 +52%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $35 −$31 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $64 −$34 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $103 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $64 −$12 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$5 -32%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $50 +$46 +93%
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in May? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $29 −$28 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $139 −$11 -8%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $30 −$7 -25%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in May? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in May? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $87 +$25 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 09 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$4 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $12 −$10 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$14 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$3 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 26 $109 −$54 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 25 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 25 $16 −$13 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 25 $19 +$10 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 25 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 25 $11 −$5 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 25 $14 −$6 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 25 $25 −$15 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 25 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 25 $18 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 25 $34 −$11 -32%
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 55% −$186
economics 20% −$438
sports 17% −$271
other 7% −$3
world 0% −$4
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 67¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL No 34¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 32¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL No 24¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 14¢ $21 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL No 10¢ $6 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 15¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL No 12¢ $6 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 18¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 38¢ $22 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 34¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $7 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-50.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -22.5% -29.9% 33% 28% -19.7%
≤30d 95 -33.4% -39.8% 23% 20% -19.3%
≤90d 121 -45.1% -50.3% 18% 16% -43.8%
all 121 -45.1% -50.3% 18% 16% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.3% 16% -43.8%
10% -55.1% 14% -49.2%
15% -59.4% 10% -54.1%
20% -63.4% 10% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.50 · official $46.50 (match) · 677 history records