Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8f9…3bb9 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$1
politics 25% $0
other 14% $0
sports 13% −$7
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 0% -10.0%
all 27 -6.4% -15.3% 56% 4% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 4% -10.9%
10% -23.4% 4% -19.4%
15% -30.8% 4% -27.2%
20% -37.6% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage476d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $36 +$3 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $57 −$3 -6%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Switzerland win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $4 $0 -10%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 22 $23 $0 -1%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dan win all the Bucharest sectors? May 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 16–23? May 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $22 $0 +1%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Electio May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 02 $26 −$1 -4%
Sisi out as President of Egypt by March 31? Mar 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $24 +$1 +3%
Robert Morris vs. Alabama Mar 22 $24 +$1 +4%
South Alabama vs. Southern Mississippi Mar 20 $17 +$7 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $42 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $42 11h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $11 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $27 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $37 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $27 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $3 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $5 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $36 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $14 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $24 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $38 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $18 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $20 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $36 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $6 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $35 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 68¢ $39 24d
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $5 356d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 357d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 357d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 357d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 357d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.16 · official $38.16 (match) · 89 history records