Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E8 0xe8fa…e207 crypto 461 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$113 (+2%) realized +$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate87%402W / 59L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$181
14 days+$191
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 +3.0% -6.8% 86% 63% -4.8%
≤30d 194 +2.9% -6.9% 86% 63% -4.9%
≤90d 231 +1.1% -8.5% 86% 55% -6.1%
all 461 +0.2% -9.4% 87% 40% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 40% -7.5%
10% -18.0% 11% -16.4%
15% -25.9% 5% -24.5%
20% -33.2% 2% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses402 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)461 / 461
History coverage137d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 461 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $37 +$16 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $66 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $59 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $38 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $65 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $32 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $239 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $37 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $42 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $28 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $65 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $24 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $32 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $19 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 950 history records