Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E8 0xe8fd…6274 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$91 (-47%) realized −$94 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$91
culture 26% +$3
tech 16% $0
sports 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-71.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -68.1% -71.1% 20% 20% -86.9%
≤30d 5 -68.1% -71.1% 20% 20% -86.9%
≤90d 5 -68.1% -71.1% 20% 20% -86.9%
all 5 -68.1% -71.1% 20% 20% -86.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.1% 20% -86.9%
10% -73.9% 20% -88.2%
15% -76.4% 20% -89.3%
20% -78.7% 20% -90.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$25 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 56m
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 57m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $37 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.79 · official $82.79 (match) · 11 history records