Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:22:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe8fd…f411 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$496 (+1%) realized +$449 · open +$47
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate100%33W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,314per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$2,534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$13
30 days+$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$283
other 31% +$209
politics 15% +$33
sports 10% +$5
tech 7% +$4
weather 3% +$16
crypto 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 25 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 33 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 3% -8.7%
all 33 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 3% -8.7%
10% -16.4% 3% -17.4%
15% -24.5% 3% -25.4%
20% -31.9% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,812) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$2,534
Realized+$449
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses33 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)33 / 44
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1,314
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,854 $1,870 +$16 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $121 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $54 $96 +$42 (+77%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $96 $83 −$13 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $67 $63 −$3 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $33 +$12 (+60%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $52 $31 −$21 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Wor Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Jun 25 $229 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Switzerland vs Canada Jun 24 $739 +$1 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $4,196 +$4 +0%
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026? Jun 23 $4,196 +$4 +0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $4,231 +$4 +0%
Will Susie Lee be the Democratic nominee for NV-03? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $3,497 +$3 +0%
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $444 $0 +0%
Will Ernest "Ernie" Richter advance from the CA-33 primary election? Jun 10 $193 $0 +0%
Will Eugene Weems advance from the CA-33 primary election? Jun 10 $137 $0 +0%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Estonia vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $391 +$1 +0%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 08 $221 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480? Jun 06 $1,631 +$2 +0%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $318 $0 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $3,154 +$263 +8%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 03 $3,812 +$4 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $3,892 +$8 +0%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 01 $509 +$25 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $3,830 +$83 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $2,463 +$17 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $364 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $140 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 01 $3,000 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $499 +$41 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $47 +$19 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $539 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $530 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA BUY Yes 100¢ $229 1h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Wor BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the Scotland BUY Yes 100¢ $121 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $80 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $1,775 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 2h
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Switzerland vs Canada BUY No 100¢ $739 3h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 100¢ $4,196 13h
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4,196 29h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,231 9d
Will Ernest "Ernie" Richter advance from the CA-33 primary election? BUY No 100¢ $69 14d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? SELL Yes 100¢ $290 14d
Will Eugene Weems advance from the CA-33 primary election? BUY No 100¢ $68 14d
Will Eugene Weems advance from the CA-33 primary election? BUY No 100¢ $68 14d
Will Ernest "Ernie" Richter advance from the CA-33 primary election? BUY No 100¢ $124 14d
Will Susie Lee be the Democratic nominee for NV-03? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 14d
Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,497 14d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? BUY Yes 100¢ $444 14d
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? BUY No 100¢ $3,996 15d
Estonia vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $3,996 15d
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $391 16d
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY No 100¢ $221 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 100¢ $3,996 16d
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440? BUY No 100¢ $50 18d
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480? BUY No 100¢ $1,631 18d
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto BUY Yes 100¢ $318 20d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,417 20d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 93¢ $163 20d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 93¢ $191 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,534.33 · official $2,534.33 (match) · 160 history records