Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:39:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe8ff…3fb5 weather 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%101W / 3L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$8
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 58 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 94 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 104 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×116.12 per $1 lost it wins $116.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses101 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage120d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $225 $225 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $193 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $205 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? Jun 09 $151 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $159 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 5? Jun 05 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 03 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 1? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 1? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on May 31? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 31? Jun 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $97 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $225 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $225 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $225 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $112 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $93 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $23 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $37 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $193 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $224 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $79 7d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $52 7d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $74 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $63 8d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $224 8d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $85 9d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $143 9d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $66 9d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $11 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $224 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $146 12d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $222 14d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $224 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $151 15d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $73 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $68 17d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $159 17d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $223 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.16 · official $225.16 (match) · 214 history records